Why we should not predict the future

Muck Rack Daily

Why we should not predict the future
May 5th, 2016
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Muck Rack Daily
Hello from Muck Rack, where you can get a snapshot of what journalists around the world are reading, thinking and commenting on right now.

Are you in communications, but unsure if you're in the right position or specialization? In today's Muck Rack blog, we'll tell you how to find your PR niche.

Today in Trump thinkpieces


"This is why we should not predict the future," concludes journalism school dean Larry Abramson, after reading Jim Rutenberg's New York Times piece "The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost" (at roughly 4,700+ shares right now). Rutenberg writes of 2016 so far "has been 'Dewey Defeats Truman' on a relentless, rolling basis." At ForbesMiguel Helft further extrapolates, "Corollary to this NYT journalism-election column: we shouldn't take comfort in HRC will beat Trump predictions." Science Magazine's Michael Balter points out, "When even Nate Silver gets it wrong, we lose all confidence in our ability to make predictions. Relatedly, David Sirota with the International Business Times has a "Radical idea: maybe journalism shouldn't be about trying to predict the horse race, but about covering actual issues." Although not everyone was on-board with Rutenberg's thesis. "This is a bad column. We need to be separating pundits/prognosticators from reporters," argues Yahoo's Hunter Walker. But while we're on a roll here, "Should the Pulitzer judges recognize spectacular failure?" wonders Paul Richter at the LA Times.

Because we like irony and contradictions, our next stop is a 2016 prediction from David Roberts that the media will lift Trump up and tear Clinton down. "This sounds right: the media is going to turn the election into a close race because that’s what it’s built to do," reacts The Coral Project's Andrew Losowsky. And speaking of contradictions, here lie some of Trump's best. "Calling politicians flip-floppers as their thoughts evolve over decades is cheap and lazy. Trump a different animal," observes former Daily Press journalist Dave Fairbank, while Bloomberg's Tara Lachapelle notices, "only trump could brag about not bragging: 'I don’t have to brag. I don’t have to. Believe it or not.'" On flip-flopping, Trump has indeed flip flopped on taxes as well as wages as he turns his focus to the general election. "Trump on his OWN tax plan today: 'I am not necessarily a huge fan of that,'" shares MSNBC's Benjy Sarlin. We'll also take this moment to point out that Trump's new finance chair given twice as much to Democrats as to the GOP. Meanwhile, McCain was caught on tape admitting that Trump damages his reelection hopes. Politico's Scott Bland observes, "In public, GOP senators not worried about a Trump effect on their races. In private..."

Question of the day


Our last question asked: What was so remarkable about the dress that Emma Watson wore to this week's Met Gala? Watson wore a multipurpose gown made of recycled plastic bottles. Now that's a statement piece!

'Congratulations to David Daniel of CNN for being the very first to get that right! Honorable mentions go out to Craig PittmanCharlotte LoBuonoFabiola CamachoRachel RohTania HussainMark Gibbs (whose response was that while Watson's dress was made of plastic, so were "the figures of many other ladies attending. #meow"), Becky YerakChris LombardiMargo HowardRobert FortnerRon Casalotti (who jokes "but due to deposit laws still cost $5000"), Kevin Paulson (who suggests "A better statemnent would be carrying a refillable water bottle"), Barbara Golden (who jokes that makes Watson's garb the best but also "trashiest dress"), Nicole Schuman and Ann McGuire for all answering correctly, as well!

As for today's question, here it is: In a new partnership, the New York Times will start delivering more than just papers to your door. What is its surprising new offering?

Click here to submit your answers to @MuckRack. IMPORTANT: If you choose not to click that link, please include the word "answer" in your tweet so we can find it (the link will automatically do so for you)! 

... We’ll announce the winners in the next Daily!

Career Updates
Journey job moves for Thursday


Your top career moves to know:

  • NBC's Natalie Morales (at right) is headed to LA to host Access Hollywood and Access Hollywood Live while also becoming a West Coast anchor for the Today Show.
  • Simultaeously, rumor has it current Access Hollywood host Billy Bush will swap positions with Morales by moving to the Today Show.
  • Entertainment Weekly welcomes Nick Maslow as TV editor. Maslow most recently served as a staff editor for People.
Don’t forget - if you change your job in journalism or move to a different news organization, be sure to email Kirsten (kirsten [at] sawhorsemedia [dot] com) so we can reflect your new title. News job changes only, please! Thanks!
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